Rates Just Jumped to a 6-Month High — NOVA Buyers, Read This

Rates just hit their highest point since September — and most people haven't even noticed yet.

Over the weekend, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.31%. That might not sound like a lot until you realize it was sitting at 5.87% in February. That's nearly a half-point jump in less than 30 days. If you've been sitting on the fence waiting for rates to drop before you make your move — this is the market telling you something.

Let me break it down for you.

What This Rate Jump Actually Costs You

On a $500,000 home with 10% down, going from 5.87% to 6.31% adds roughly $130–$140 to your monthly payment. That's not catastrophic — but it's real money. And if rates keep climbing toward the 6.5% range that some forecasters are projecting, that gap gets wider fast.

Nobody's gonna tell you this, so I will: the buyers who win in this market aren't the ones who time rates perfectly. They're the ones who move with intention when opportunity is still in front of them.

Why Prince William County Is the Smartest Move in NOVA Right Now

Real talk — if you're priced out of Fairfax, Arlington, or Alexandria, stop stressing and look south. Prince William County is straight-up outperforming the rest of Northern Virginia right now, and the data backs it up.

Here's what's happening in my backyard right now:

Median list price: $599,900 — compared to $789,500 in Arlington

Homes going under contract in 23 days — faster than Arlington's 31 days

588 active listings on the market right now, up 29% from a year ago

334 homes closed in February alone — up 11.7% from February 2025

More inventory. Lower price point. Faster contract timelines. Woodbridge, Manassas, Dale City, Dumfries — this market is moving, and smart buyers are quietly locking in while everyone else is staring at rate headlines.

What You Should Do This Week

If you're a buyer: get your pre-approval updated TODAY. Not next week — today. Rates moved half a point in a month. Your purchasing power is not the same as it was in February.

If you're a seller in Prince William County: you are sitting on more leverage than you think. Inventory is up, but demand is still strong and buyers are still showing up. Priced right, your home can go under contract in under a month in this market. I've seen it happen.

The Northern Virginia housing market in 2026 isn't the frenzy of 2021 — but it's far from dead. It's a chess game now, and the people who understand the board win.

If you want to talk strategy — whether you're buying, selling, or just trying to figure out your next move — hit reply or book a free call with me. No pressure, no pitch. Just real talk about where you stand.

— Khalil

Sine Limitatione 🔱

Khalil D. Campbell | Long & Foster | Woodbridge, VA | Prince William County Real Estate